Argentina v Egypt

Argentina meet Egypt in the FIFA World Cup 2026 round of 16 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The model makes Argentina the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 46% ARG, 30% draw, 24% EGY.

Argentina rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 2100 to 1800. Recent form leans Argentina, 80% against 62%. Attacking output favors Argentina on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.2 per match.

Model score projection: most likely Argentina 1-0 Egypt, from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.7.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 42%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Argentina at 65%; double chance reads Argentina or draw 76%, Egypt or draw 54%.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.