Model previews, probabilities and the edge against the market. Updated continuously.
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Free live scores, worldwide. Open any match for the model edge, lineups and MeisterQuery.
The World Cup 2026 is complete. Browse it in the competitions archive.
Matches
17214
Accuracy
47.4%
Brier
0.624
Log loss
1.039
Skill vs naive
+2.9%
Exact scoreline
8.7%
Mean goal error
2.31
Scorelines graded
2,056
Model vs the alternatives
Brier score grades the whole probability vector, so being confident and right beats being right by luck. Lower is better. On these 17,214 matches the model scores 0.624 against 0.642 for a forecast that only knows the long-run split — an error reduction of 2.9%.
These are naive baselines, not bookmakers. Closing prices were never stored alongside past forecasts, so no like-for-like comparison against the market exists for the years above. Odds are now recorded with every new forecast, and that comparison will appear here once it covers enough settled matches to mean anything.
Showing · All settled forecasts · Jun 1, 2026 – present
Backtest: Jan 2010 – Jul 2026 (walk-forward, no look-ahead). Live: Aug 2026 – present (real-time pre-match snapshots).
