Águeda v Pevidem: the model read
Águeda meet Pevidem in the Taça de Portugal 2nd round at Estádio Municipal de Águeda, Águeda. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% ÁGU, 34% draw, 32% PEV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 33% against 35%. Attacking output favors Pevidem on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 22%. Draw no bet leans Águeda at 51%; double chance reads Águeda or draw 68%, Pevidem or draw 66%.
Águeda arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 0 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Pevidem, L 0-1 @ Sanjoanense, L 0-1 v São João Ver, L 0-2 v Castro Daire.
Pevidem are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Rebordosa, W 2-0 v Sandinenses, L 0-4 @ Paredes, D 1-1 v Os Limianos.
Pevidem hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Águeda 0-1 Pevidem.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
