Castanhal v Fluminense PI: the model read
Castanhal meet Fluminense PI in the Serie D 1st phase - 3 at Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, Castanhal, Pará. The model makes the draw the most likely outcome at 34%, with the full read 34% CAS, 34% draw, 32% FLU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 43%. Attacking output favors Castanhal on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 22%. Draw no bet leans Castanhal at 51%; double chance reads Castanhal or draw 68%, Fluminense PI or draw 66%.
Castanhal arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Nova Iguaçu, L 0-1 v Capitao Poco, D 0-0 v Águia de Marabá, D 1-1 v Guarani Campinas.
Fluminense PI are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ America-RN, L 0-3 v America-RN, L 0-1 @ Ferroviario, D 1-1 v Altos.
Fluminense PI hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Fluminense PI 3-1 Castanhal.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
