Castanhal v Paragominas: the model read
Castanhal meet Paragominas in the Paraense 1st phase - 1 at Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, Castanhal, Pará. The model makes Paragominas the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 28% CAS, 32% draw, 40% PAR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Paragominas, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Paragominas on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 35%. Draw no bet leans Paragominas at 59%; double chance reads Castanhal or draw 60%, Paragominas or draw 72%.
Castanhal arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Nova Iguaçu, L 0-1 v Capitao Poco, D 0-0 v Águia de Marabá, D 1-1 v Guarani Campinas.
Paragominas are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Urumajó, W 3-1 v Pinheirense, D 0-0 v Urumajó, D 1-1 @ Pinheirense.
Castanhal hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Castanhal 1-0 Paragominas.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
