Castanhal v Paysandu: the model read
Castanhal meet Paysandu in the Copa Verde quarter-finals at Estádio Maximino Porpino Filho, Castanhal, Pará. The model makes Paysandu the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 28% CAS, 30% draw, 43% PAY.
Paysandu rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1604 to 1454. Recent form leans Paysandu, 63% against 45%. Attacking output favors Paysandu on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Paysandu at 61%; double chance reads Castanhal or draw 57%, Paysandu or draw 72%.
Castanhal arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 1 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Nova Iguaçu, L 0-1 v Capitao Poco, D 0-0 v Águia de Marabá, D 1-1 v Guarani Campinas.
Paysandu are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Guarani Campinas, L 0-1 @ Ypiranga-RS, L 1-3 v Santa Cruz, W 1-0 @ Maranhão.
Paysandu hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Paysandu 1-0 Castanhal.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
