Carbonia v Aprilia: the model read
Carbonia meet Aprilia in the Serie D - Girone G group g - 16 at Stadio Carlo Zoboli, Carbonia. The model makes Aprilia the most likely outcome at 37%, with the full read 33% CAR, 30% draw, 37% APR.
The baseline ratings are close, 1443 to 1443, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 43%. Attacking output favors Carbonia on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 57%, over 2.5 goals around 54%. Draw no bet leans Aprilia at 53%; double chance reads Carbonia or draw 63%, Aprilia or draw 67%.
Carbonia arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Gladiator, L 1-4 @ Aprilia, W 2-0 v Vis Artena, L 1-3 v Muravera.
Aprilia are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Vis Artena, W 4-1 v Casertana, L 0-1 @ Pomezia, L 1-3 v Arzachena.
Aprilia hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2022: Aprilia 4-1 Carbonia.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output