The match report
Match report
Aston Villa beat Sevilla 3-1.
How it unfolded: 53' I. Romero (SEV), 71' R. Barkley (AST), 79' A. Garnacho (AST), 83' M. Jenner (AST).
Discipline: 2 yellow cards.
Changes off the bench: SEV 10, AST 7.
The model's lean held: it made Aston Villa the most likely outcome at 37%, and the result followed. One result proves little; the ledger is the judge over the full tournament.
Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Sevilla 1-2 Aston Villa; the match finished 1-3.
Ledger entry: the published 2.3-point edge on the draw did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data