Asian Games · Semi-finals · World

Uzbekistan U23 v Japan U23

1-1Full timeSep 30, 2026, 6:30 AM ET· Osaka Nagai Stadium, Osaka· Referee: Abdulhadi Alasmar Al-Ruaile

Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on Uzbekistan U23 v Japan U23

Uzbekistan U23 meet Japan U23 in the Asian Games semi-finals at Osaka Nagai Stadium, Osaka.

Japan U23 rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1776 to 1558. Recent form leans Japan U23, 88% against 57%. Attacking output favors Japan U23 on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.6 per match.

Uzbekistan U23 arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 13 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Japan U23, W 3-0 v Saudi Arabia U23, W 2-0 @ Vietnam U23, W 2-0 @ Kuwait U23.

Japan U23 are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 14 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Uzbekistan U23, W 1-0 v Korea DPR U23, W 3-0 v Thailand U23, W 7-0 @ Kyrgyz Republic U23.

The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Uzbekistan U23 1-1 Japan U23.

The market prices UZB at 14% implied. Our number sits apart on Uzbekistan U23: a 7.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

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Uzbekistan U23

WWWWD9-5-6

Scored 1.60 · Conceded 0.90 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 45%

DHJapan U231-1
WHSaudi Arabia U233-0
WAVietnam U232-0
WAKuwait U232-0
WHPhilippines U235-1

Japan U23

WWWWD16-3-1

Scored 2.50 · Conceded 0.40 · Clean sheets 70% · BTTS 25%

DAUzbekistan U231-1
WHKorea DPR U231-0
WHThailand U233-0
WAKyrgyz Republic U237-0
WHHong Kong U232-0

Head-to-head

3 meetings

Uzbekistan U23recordJapan U23

1 draw

Goals

3-2

for each

Avg goals

1.7

per game

BTTS

33%

both scored

Over 2.5

3+ goals

Uzbekistan U23

Recent

DLW

Wins 1Goals 3-2

Biggest win 2-0

Japan U23

Recent

DWL

Wins 1Goals 2-3

Biggest win 1-0

Uzbekistan U231-1Japan U23
Asian GamesOsaka Nagai Stadium
9/30/26, 6:30 AM ET
Japan U231-0Uzbekistan U23
AFC U23 Asian CupJassim Bin Hamad Stadium
5/3/24, 11:30 AM ET
Uzbekistan U232-0Japan U23
AFC U23 Asian CupMilliy Stadion
6/15/22, 12:00 PM ET

Managers

T. Kapadze

Head coach

In charge since 2022 · 3 teams managed

Olympic2022–2023
Olympic2021–2021
Uzbekistan2018–2018

Go Oiwa

Head coach

In charge since 2026

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.

The match report

Match report

Uzbekistan U23 and Japan U23 drew 1-1 at Osaka Nagai Stadium, Osaka.

How it unfolded: 8' S. Bakhromov (UZB), 88' S. Ishibashi (JAP), 120' Yudai Shimamoto (JAP pen), 120' Giyosdzhon Rizakulov (UZB pen), 120' Yumeki Yokoyama (JAP pen), 120' Ruziboy Fayzullaev (UZB pen), 120' Rei Umeki (JAP pen), 120' Saidkhon Khamidov (UZB pen), 120' Shodiyor Shodiboyev (UZB pen), 120' Nurlan Ibraimov (UZB pen), 120' Keita Kosugi (JAP pen), 120' Kaito Tsuchiya (JAP pen), 120' Mukhammedali Reimov (UZB pen), 120' Dilshod Murtozoev (UZB pen), 120' Nelson Ishiwatari (JAP pen), 120' Yuto Ozeki (JAP pen), 120' Sardorbek Bakhromov (UZB pen), 120' Yotaro Nakajima (JAP pen), 120' Shuto Nagano (JAP pen).

The numbers, UZB to JAP: possession 31% to 69%; shots on target 4 to 7; total shots 6 to 15; corners 2 to 8.

Discipline: 2 yellow cards.

Changes off the bench: UZB 6, JAP 6.

The model leaned Japan U23 at 49% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 30%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Uzbekistan U23 0-1 Japan U23; the match finished 1-1.

Ledger entry: the published 7.2-point edge on Uzbekistan U23 did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data

Match data

How it unfolded: 8' S. Bakhromov (UZB), 88' S. Ishibashi (JAP), 120' Yudai Shimamoto (JAP pen), 120' Giyosdzhon Rizakulov (UZB pen), 120' Yumeki Yokoyama (JAP pen), 120' Ruziboy Fayzullaev (UZB pen), 120' Rei Umeki (JAP pen), 120' Saidkhon Khamidov (UZB pen), 120' Shodiyor Shodiboyev (UZB pen), 120' Nurlan Ibraimov (UZB pen), 120' Keita Kosugi (JAP pen), 120' Kaito Tsuchiya (JAP pen), 120' Mukhammedali Reimov (UZB pen), 120' Dilshod Murtozoev (UZB pen), 120' Nelson Ishiwatari (JAP pen), 120' Yuto Ozeki (JAP pen), 120' Sardorbek Bakhromov (UZB pen), 120' Yotaro Nakajima (JAP pen), 120' Shuto Nagano (JAP pen).
The numbers, UZB to JAP: possession 31% to 69%; shots on target 4 to 7; total shots 6 to 15; corners 2 to 8.
Discipline: 2 yellow cards.
Changes off the bench: UZB 6, JAP 6.

How the model graded

The model leaned Japan U23 at 49% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 30%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.

Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Uzbekistan U23 0-1 Japan U23; the match finished 1-1.

Ledger entry: the published 7.2-point edge on Uzbekistan U23 did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.

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Uzbekistan U23 v Japan U23

Where the market is wrong on Uzbekistan U23 v Japan U23

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