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FA Cup · 3rd Round Qualifying · England

Chesham United v Real Bedford

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on Chesham United v Real Bedford

Chesham United meet Real Bedford in the FA Cup 3rd round qualifying.

Real Bedford rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1730 to 1523. Recent form leans Real Bedford, 80% against 50%. Attacking output favors Real Bedford on expected goals, 3.4 to 2.3 per match.

Chesham United arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 13 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 0-4 v Maidenhead, W 7-2 v Ware, W 4-1 @ Horsham, L 1-2 v Billericay Town.

Real Bedford are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Leiston, L 0-3 v Wingate & Finchley, W 4-1 @ Stourbridge, W 2-1 @ Harleston Town.

The market prices CHE at 48% implied. Our number sits apart on Real Bedford: a 12.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Chesham United

LLWWL9-2-9

Scored 2.30 · Conceded 1.85 · Clean sheets 20% · BTTS 60%

  • LHMaidenhead0-4
  • WHWare7-2
  • WAHorsham4-1
  • LHBillericay Town1-2
  • LATruro City1-3

Real Bedford

WWWLW15-2-3

Scored 3.35 · Conceded 2.05 · Clean sheets 10% · BTTS 85%

  • WHLeiston3-2
  • LHWingate & Finchley0-3
  • WAStourbridge4-1
  • WAHarleston Town2-1
  • WHRedditch United2-1

Managers

M. Murray

England · 37

In charge since 2018

Away coach unavailable.

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.