Where the market is wrong on Fulham v Crystal Palace
Fulham meet Crystal Palace in the League Cup round of 16 at Craven Cottage, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1466 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 50%. Attacking output favors Crystal Palace on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Fulham arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Manchester United, W 3-2 @ West Ham, D 0-0 @ Liverpool, L 2-3 v Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 12 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Leeds, W 4-0 v Lech Poznan, L 2-3 v Ipswich, W 3-0 v Middlesbrough.
Crystal Palace hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace.
The market prices FUL at 41% implied. Our number sits apart on Crystal Palace: a 4.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
