Where the market is wrong on Kyrgyzstan v Maldives
Kyrgyzstan meet Maldives in the Friendlies friendly international.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Kyrgyzstan, 32% against 23%. Attacking output favors Kyrgyzstan on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.7 per match.
Kyrgyzstan arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 v Maldives, D 0-0 v Palestine, D 0-0 v Palestine, L 2-5 v Madagascar.
Maldives are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 1 scored and 18 conceded. Recent results: L 0-6 v Lebanon, L 0-5 @ Kyrgyzstan, L 0-3 @ China, D 1-1 v Bangladesh U23.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kyrgyzstan 5-0 Maldives.
The market prices KYR at 89% implied. Our number sits apart on Maldives: a 22.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
