Where the market is wrong on Peterborough Sports v Banbury United
Peterborough Sports meet Banbury United in the FA Trophy final.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 35% against 40%. Attacking output favors Peterborough Sports on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.1 per match.
Peterborough Sports arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Redditch United, L 1-3 v Banbury United, W 2-0 @ Leiston, L 1-3 @ AFC Rushden & Diamonds.
Banbury United are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 7 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Stratford Town, W 3-1 @ Peterborough Sports, D 0-0 @ Worcester City, L 1-2 v Leiston.
Peterborough Sports hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Peterborough Sports 1-3 Banbury United.
The market prices PET at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Banbury United: a 10.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 77 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
