Where the market is wrong on UMM Salal v Al Kharaitiyat
UMM Salal meet Al Kharaitiyat in the QSL Cup group stage - 1 at Thani bin Jassim Stadium, Doha.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 53%. Attacking output favors UMM Salal on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
UMM Salal arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Al Kharaitiyat, L 1-5 v Al-Khor, W 2-1 @ Al Mesaimeer, D 1-1 v Qatar U23.
Al Kharaitiyat are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ UMM Salal, D 1-1 @ Al Mesaimeer, W 3-1 v Al-Khor, D 0-0 @ Al Shamal II.
UMM Salal hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: UMM Salal 1-0 Al Kharaitiyat.
The market prices UMM at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
