Where the market is wrong on Juventus v União São João
Juventus meet União São João in the Copa Paulista quarter-finals at Estadio Rua Javari, Sao Paulo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1615 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Juventus, 65% against 55%. Attacking output favors Juventus on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.0 per match.
Juventus arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v União São João, L 0-1 @ União São João, W 5-0 v Oeste, L 0-1 @ Paulista.
União São João are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Grêmio Prudente, D 1-1 @ Juventus, W 1-0 v Juventus, L 1-3 @ Bandeirante SP.
União São João hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Juventus 1-1 União São João.
The market prices JUV at 47% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
