Sporting CP W and Brøndby W drew 2-2 at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira, Alcochet.
How it unfolded: 20' Carla Armengol (SPO), 42' Mila Bischoff (BRØ), 61' Emma Ramírez (SPO), 84' Rakel Engesvik (BRØ).
The numbers, SPO to BRØ: possession 58% to 42%; shots on target 5 to 7; total shots 7 to 15; corners 5 to 2.
Discipline: 2 yellow cards.
Changes off the bench: SPO 5, BRØ 5.
The model leaned Brøndby W at 40% and the match went the other way. It priced this outcome at 30%, so the result sits within the model's own uncertainty, but it goes in the ledger as a miss.
Score projection: the model's most likely scoreline was Sporting CP W 1-2 Brøndby W; the match finished 2-2.
Ledger entry: the published 15.7-point edge on Brøndby W did not land. Logged in the open, as every edge is.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output and real match data