Where the market is wrong on Lahti v Mariehamn
Lahti meet Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga relegation group - 23 at Lahden Stadion, Lahti.
Lahti rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1581 to 1400. Recent form leans Lahti, 60% against 28%. Attacking output favors Lahti on expected goals, 1.4 to 0.9 per match.
Lahti arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Mariehamn, W 1-0 @ VPS, W 2-1 @ SJK, L 1-2 v KuPS.
Mariehamn are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Lahti, W 2-0 v FF Jaro, W 4-2 @ KuPS, W 2-0 v SJK.
The market prices LAH at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
