Where the market is wrong on Turkmenistan U20 v Thailand U20
Turkmenistan U20 meet Thailand U20 in the AFC U20 Asian Cup group stage - 2 at Chonburi Daikin Stadium, Chonburi.
The baseline ratings are close, 1461 to 1563, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Thailand U20, 56% against 41%. Attacking output favors Thailand U20 on expected goals, 2.9 to 1.5 per match.
Turkmenistan U20 arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Thailand U20, W 2-1 @ Iraq U20, L 0-2 v Uzbekistan U20, L 1-2 @ Kyrgyz Republic U20.
Thailand U20 are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ Turkmenistan U20, W 1-0 v UAE U20, D 2-2 @ Syria U20, L 1-4 v Korea Republic U20.
Thailand U20 hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Turkmenistan U20 0-1 Thailand U20.
The market prices TUR at 19% implied. Our number sits apart on Turkmenistan U20: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output