South Hobart v Devonport City: the model read
South Hobart meet Devonport City in the Tasmania NPL final at Darcy Street, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1765 to 1719, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 85% against 78%. Attacking output favors South Hobart on expected goals, 3.5 to 2.6 per match.
South Hobart arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 17 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Devonport City, W 4-2 v Kingborough Lions, L 0-3 v Devonport City, W 5-2 v Riverside.
Devonport City are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 14 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ South Hobart, W 3-0 @ South Hobart, W 2-1 v Kingborough Lions, W 6-0 v Launceston City.
South Hobart hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: South Hobart 5-1 Devonport City.
The market prices SOU at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Devonport City: a 2.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
