Where the market is wrong on Tuggeranong United v Queanbeyan City
Tuggeranong United meet Queanbeyan City in the Capital Territory NPL quarter-finals at Kambah Stadium, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1673 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 70% against 65%. Attacking output favors Tuggeranong United on expected goals, 2.4 to 2.0 per match.
Tuggeranong United arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 12 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Queanbeyan City, W 2-0 v Canberra Juventus, W 6-0 @ Brindabella, L 2-4 @ Queanbeyan City.
Queanbeyan City are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 12 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Tuggeranong United, W 1-0 v O'Connor Knights, W 2-1 @ Canberra Juventus, W 4-2 v Tuggeranong United.
Queanbeyan City hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tuggeranong United 0-2 Queanbeyan City.
The market prices TUG at 34% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output