Where the market is wrong on El Nacional v LDU Portoviejo
El Nacional meet LDU Portoviejo in the Liga Pro Serie B relegation group - 2.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1477, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans LDU Portoviejo, 48% against 20%. Attacking output favors LDU Portoviejo on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.6 per match.
El Nacional arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 2 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v LDU Portoviejo, L 0-3 @ Gualaceo SC, D 1-1 @ Ind. Juniors, L 0-1 v San Antonio.
LDU Portoviejo are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 4 scored and 0 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ El Nacional, D 0-0 @ Cumbayá, W 2-0 v 22 de Julio, D 0-0 @ Cuniburo.
LDU Portoviejo hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 9 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: El Nacional 0-2 LDU Portoviejo.
The market prices EL at 42% implied. Our number sits apart on LDU Portoviejo: a 13.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
