Where the market is wrong on FC Tokyo v Parceiro Nagano
FC Tokyo meet Parceiro Nagano in the Emperor Cup 2nd round at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo.
FC Tokyo rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1592 to 1454. Recent form leans FC Tokyo, 63% against 43%. Attacking output favors FC Tokyo on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 48%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans FC Tokyo at 67%; double chance reads FC Tokyo or draw 77%, Parceiro Nagano or draw 52%.
FC Tokyo arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 6-0 v Parceiro Nagano, W 2-0 v JEF United Chiba, D 2-2 @ Vissel Kobe, L 1-5 v Machida Zelvia.
Parceiro Nagano are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-6 @ FC Tokyo, W 1-0 @ Roasso Kumamoto, W 2-1 v Fukui United, L 2-4 @ Osaka.
FC Tokyo hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Tokyo 6-0 Parceiro Nagano.
The market prices FC at 84% implied. Our number sits apart on Parceiro Nagano: a 18.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
