Where the market is wrong on Lech Poznan v FC Thun
Lech Poznan meet FC Thun in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Enea Poznań, Poznan.
Lech Poznan rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1722 to 1407. Recent form leans Lech Poznan, 82% against 34%. Attacking output favors Lech Poznan on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Lech Poznan at 75%; double chance reads Lech Poznan or draw 81%, FC Thun or draw 42%.
Lech Poznan arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 18 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 7-0 v FC Thun, W 5-0 @ KI Klaksvik, W 3-0 v Piast Gliwice, W 1-0 v KI Klaksvik.
FC Thun are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 13 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 0-7 @ Lech Poznan, W 6-0 @ Saxon Sports, L 2-3 @ Vikingur Reykjavik, L 2-4 @ FC Basel 1893.
The market prices LEC at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Thun: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
