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Serie D - Girone D · Group D - 5 · Italy

Pro Sesto v Oltrepò

· Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni

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Where the market is wrong on Pro Sesto v Oltrepò

Pro Sesto meet Oltrepò in the Serie D - Girone D group d - 5 at Stadio Ernesto Breda, Sesto San Giovanni.

The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1553, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 55%. Attacking output favors Pro Sesto on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.

Pro Sesto arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Crema, W 3-0 v Pontedera, W 2-0 @ Città di Varese, L 2-3 v Lentigione.

Oltrepò are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 7 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Coriano, W 1-0 @ Castellanzese, L 1-2 @ Pro Patria, W 2-1 v Brusaporto.

The market prices PRO at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on Oltrepò: a 13.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 50 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Pro Sesto

LLWWW8-5-7

Scored 1.55 · Conceded 1.10 · Clean sheets 40% · BTTS 55%

  • WACrema3-0
  • WHPontedera3-0
  • WACittà di Varese2-0
  • LHLentigione2-3
  • LACorreggese0-1

Oltrepò

WWLWL9-3-7

Scored 1.11 · Conceded 0.89 · Clean sheets 42.1% · BTTS 26.3%

  • LHCoriano0-1
  • WACastellanzese1-0
  • LAPro Patria1-2
  • WHBrusaporto2-1
  • WAVilla Valle3-1

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.