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UEFA Champions League Women · 3rd Qualifying Round · World

Real Madrid W v Ajax W

2-1Full time· Estadio Alfredo di Stefano, Madrid· Referee: F. Klarlund

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on Real Madrid W v Ajax W

Real Madrid W meet Ajax W in the UEFA Champions League Women 3rd qualifying round at Estadio Alfredo di Stefano, Madrid.

The baseline ratings are close, 1753 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 83% against 75%. Attacking output favors Real Madrid W on expected goals, 2.1 to 2.0 per match.

Real Madrid W arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 13 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Ajax W, W 3-2 v Atletico Madrid W, W 2-0 @ Ajax W, W 2-0 v Granada.

Ajax W are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Real Madrid W, L 0-2 v Real Madrid W, W 1-0 v PEC Zwolle W, W 1-0 @ Utrecht W.

Real Madrid W hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Real Madrid W 2-1 Ajax W.

The market prices REA at 82% implied. Our number sits apart on Ajax W: a 32.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Real Madrid W

WWWWW16-1-3

Scored 2.10 · Conceded 1.15 · Clean sheets 60% · BTTS 30%

  • WHAjax W2-1
  • WHAtletico Madrid W3-2
  • WAAjax W2-0
  • WHGranada2-0
  • WAFC Levante Badalona W4-0

Ajax W

WWWLL13-4-3

Scored 2.00 · Conceded 0.70 · Clean sheets 50% · BTTS 45%

  • LAReal Madrid W1-2
  • LHReal Madrid W0-2
  • WHPEC Zwolle W1-0
  • WAUtrecht W1-0
  • WHRangers W2-1

Head-to-head

2 meetings

Real Madrid WrecordAjax W
2
0
0 draws

Goals

4-1

for each

Avg goals

2.5

per game

BTTS

50%

both scored

Over 2.5

50%

3+ goals

Real Madrid W

Recent
WW
Wins 2Goals 4-1

Biggest win 2-0

Ajax W

Recent
LL
Wins 0Goals 1-4
  • Real Madrid W2-1Ajax W
  • Ajax W0-2Real Madrid W

Managers

Pau Quesada

Head coach

In charge since 2025

Anouk Bruil

Head coach

In charge since 2025

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.