Where the market is wrong on PSV/Eindhoven W v Køge W
PSV/Eindhoven W meet Køge W in the UEFA Champions League Women 3rd qualifying round at De Herdgang, Eindhoven.
The baseline ratings are close, 1753 to 1696, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 85% against 78%. Attacking output favors PSV/Eindhoven W on expected goals, 2.3 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 51%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans PSV/Eindhoven W at 54%; double chance reads PSV/Eindhoven W or draw 68%, Køge W or draw 63%.
PSV/Eindhoven W arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Køge W, D 1-1 v Utrecht W, W 2-0 @ PEC Zwolle W, W 3-1 v HJK W.
Køge W are surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 12 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 @ PSV/Eindhoven W, W 2-1 @ Brøndby W, W 3-0 v Odense Q W, W 2-1 v Hearts W.
Køge W hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: PSV/Eindhoven W 0-1 Køge W.
The market prices PSV at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
