Where the market is wrong on Red Bull Salzburg v Mjallby AIF
Red Bull Salzburg meet Mjallby AIF in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Red Bull Arena, Salzburg.
Red Bull Salzburg rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1625 to 1400. Recent form leans Red Bull Salzburg, 66% against 33%. Attacking output favors Red Bull Salzburg on expected goals, 2.3 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 79%. Draw no bet leans Red Bull Salzburg at 72%; double chance reads Red Bull Salzburg or draw 79%, Mjallby AIF or draw 46%.
Red Bull Salzburg arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 11 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Mjallby AIF, W 1-0 @ Mjallby AIF, W 3-0 @ WSG Wattens, D 3-3 @ Pafos.
Mjallby AIF are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Red Bull Salzburg, L 0-1 v Red Bull Salzburg, W 4-3 v Sirius, L 0-2 @ Slovan Bratislava.
Red Bull Salzburg hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
The market prices RED at 76% implied. Our number sits apart on Mjallby AIF: a 12.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
