Where the market is wrong on FC Iberia 1999 v Jagiellonia
FC Iberia 1999 meet Jagiellonia in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Mikheil Meskhi Stadium, Tbilisi.
Jagiellonia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1734 to 1504. Recent form leans Jagiellonia, 82% against 50%. Attacking output favors Jagiellonia on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 45%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Jagiellonia at 68%; double chance reads FC Iberia 1999 or draw 51%, Jagiellonia or draw 77%.
FC Iberia 1999 arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Jagiellonia, L 0-4 @ Jagiellonia, L 3-4 @ Torpedo Kutaisi, W 2-1 v Larne.
Jagiellonia are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 9 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ FC Iberia 1999, W 4-0 v FC Iberia 1999, D 1-1 @ Rangers, L 0-2 v Widzew Łódź.
Jagiellonia hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Iberia 1999 1-2 Jagiellonia.
The market prices FC at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Jagiellonia: a 5.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 67 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
