Where the market is wrong on CSKA Sofia v OFI
CSKA Sofia meet OFI in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia.
CSKA Sofia rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1636 to 1477. Recent form leans CSKA Sofia, 68% against 45%. Attacking output favors CSKA Sofia on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 74%. Draw no bet leans CSKA Sofia at 60%; double chance reads CSKA Sofia or draw 71%, OFI or draw 57%.
CSKA Sofia arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v OFI, L 0-3 @ OFI, W 5-0 v Botev Vratsa, L 1-3 v Maccabi Tel Aviv.
OFI are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Volos NFC, W 3-0 v CSKA Sofia, D 2-2 @ AEK Athens FC, L 1-2 @ Willem II.
CSKA Sofia hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: OFI 3-0 CSKA Sofia.
The market prices CSK at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on OFI: a 11.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
