Where the market is wrong on Aarhus v Benfica
Aarhus meet Benfica in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Cepheus Park Randers, Randers.
Benfica rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1500. Recent form leans Benfica, 78% against 50%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.9 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 68%, over 2.5 goals around 87%. Draw no bet leans Benfica at 71%; double chance reads Aarhus or draw 47%, Benfica or draw 78%.
Aarhus arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 5 scored and 14 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Benfica, D 2-2 v Odense, L 1-3 @ Benfica, L 1-2 @ Viborg.
Benfica are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 16 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ Aarhus, W 3-1 v Aarhus, W 7-0 @ Casa Pia, D 1-1 @ Heart Of Midlothian.
Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Benfica 3-1 Aarhus.
The market prices AAR at 13% implied. Our number sits apart on Aarhus: a 8.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
