Where the market is wrong on Kairat Almaty v Anderlecht
Kairat Almaty meet Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Central Stadium, Almaty.
The baseline ratings are close, 1625 to 1565, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 66% against 58%. Attacking output favors Kairat Almaty on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 58%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Kairat Almaty at 60%; double chance reads Kairat Almaty or draw 72%, Anderlecht or draw 57%.
Kairat Almaty arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Anderlecht, W 3-1 v Ulytau, L 0-1 v Levski Sofia, L 0-1 @ Levski Sofia.
Anderlecht are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 9 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Kairat Almaty, L 0-1 @ SK Beveren, W 3-2 v PAOK, W 2-1 v RAAL La Louvière.
Anderlecht hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Kairat Almaty 0-3 Anderlecht.
The market prices KAI at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Kairat Almaty: a 15.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
