Where the market is wrong on Egnatia Rrogozhinë v Lillestrom
Egnatia Rrogozhinë meet Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Arena Egnatia, Rrogozhine.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 48%. Attacking output favors Egnatia Rrogozhinë on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 60%. Draw no bet leans Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 56%; double chance reads Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw 69%, Lillestrom or draw 61%.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 v Tirana, D 0-0 v Lillestrom, W 5-1 v Shamrock Rovers, L 1-3 @ Shamrock Rovers.
Lillestrom are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 2 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Egnatia Rrogozhinë, D 1-1 @ KFUM Oslo, L 0-2 v Rosenborg, L 0-4 @ Bodo/Glimt.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0-0 Lillestrom.
The market prices EGN at 27% implied. Our number sits apart on Egnatia Rrogozhinë: a 11.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
