Where the market is wrong on Fulham v AFC Wimbledon
Fulham meet AFC Wimbledon in the League Cup round of 64 at Craven Cottage, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fulham, 48% against 28%. Attacking output favors Fulham on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 29%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Fulham at 62%; double chance reads Fulham or draw 75%, AFC Wimbledon or draw 58%.
Fulham arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 v Chelsea, W 1-0 v VfB Stuttgart, D 2-2 @ Malaga, L 1-2 v Crystal Palace.
AFC Wimbledon are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Reading, D 1-1 @ Leyton Orient, L 0-3 @ Huddersfield, D 1-1 v Newport County.
The market prices FUL at 81% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 20.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
