Where the market is wrong on Plymouth v Coventry
Plymouth meet Coventry in the League Cup round of 64 at Home Park, Plymouth.
The baseline ratings are close, 1661 to 1719, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 73% against 80%. Attacking output favors Coventry on expected goals, 2.1 to 2.0 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Coventry at 57%; double chance reads Plymouth or draw 60%, Coventry or draw 70%.
Plymouth arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 2-4 v Coventry, D 1-1 @ Wycombe, L 1-3 v Stockport County, W 2-0 v Exeter City.
Coventry are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 @ Plymouth, L 0-3 @ Arsenal, W 2-0 v Monaco, W 3-1 v Espanyol.
Coventry hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Plymouth 2-4 Coventry.
The market prices PLY at 19% implied. Our number sits apart on Plymouth: a 11.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
