Where the market is wrong on Tottenham v Charlton
Tottenham meet Charlton in the League Cup round of 64 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Tottenham, 60% against 50%. Attacking output favors Tottenham on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 55%, over 2.5 goals around 53%. Draw no bet leans Tottenham at 56%; double chance reads Tottenham or draw 69%, Charlton or draw 61%.
Tottenham arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Charlton, L 0-3 @ Brentford, D 2-2 v 1899 Hoffenheim, W 3-0 v 1899 Hoffenheim.
Charlton are in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 8 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Tottenham, W 2-1 @ West Ham, W 2-1 v Derby, W 3-1 @ Cheltenham.
Tottenham hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tottenham 5-1 Charlton.
The market prices TOT at 84% implied. Our number sits apart on Charlton: a 25.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
