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League Cup · Round of 64 · England

Newcastle v West Brom

3-2Full time· St James' Park, Newcastle· Referee: R. Madley

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Newcastle v West Brom: the model read

Newcastle meet West Brom in the League Cup round of 64 at St James' Park, Newcastle.

West Brom rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1638 to 1454. Recent form leans West Brom, 70% against 43%. Attacking output favors West Brom on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 71%. Draw no bet leans West Brom at 70%; double chance reads Newcastle or draw 48%, West Brom or draw 78%.

Newcastle arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v West Brom, D 2-2 v Liverpool, D 1-1 v Strasbourg, L 1-2 v Bayer Leverkusen.

West Brom are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 13 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 2-3 @ Newcastle, W 3-1 v Burnley, W 2-1 @ Norwich, W 4-1 @ Rotherham.

Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Newcastle

LLDDW6-5-9

Scored 1.45 · Conceded 1.80 · Clean sheets 10% · BTTS 80%

  • WHWest Brom3-2
  • DHLiverpool2-2
  • DHStrasbourg1-1
  • LHBayer Leverkusen1-2
  • LHEverton1-3

West Brom

WWWWL11-6-3

Scored 1.95 · Conceded 0.80 · Clean sheets 45% · BTTS 55%

  • LANewcastle2-3
  • WHBurnley3-1
  • WANorwich2-1
  • WARotherham4-1
  • WAPeterborough2-0

Managers

E. Howe

England · 48

In charge since 2021 · 4 clubs managed

  • AFC Bournemouth2012–2020
  • Burnley2011–2012
  • AFC Bournemouth2008–2011

E. Ramsay

Wales · 33

In charge since 2026 · 3 clubs managed

  • Swansea City U182016–2017

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MeisterIQ, the four model inputs, model vs market and the edge

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.