Where the market is wrong on Forge v Supra du Quebec
Forge meet Supra du Quebec in the Canadian Championship semi-finals at Tim Hortons Field, undefined.
Forge rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1431. Recent form leans Forge, 70% against 40%. Attacking output favors Forge on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.
Forge arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Supra du Quebec, W 3-0 v Atlético Ottawa, D 1-1 v York United, D 1-1 @ Supra du Quebec.
Supra du Quebec are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 4 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Forge, L 0-2 v HFX Wanderers FC, L 2-3 @ Vancouver FC, D 1-1 v Forge.
Forge hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 1 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Forge 1-0 Supra du Quebec.
The market prices FOR at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Supra du Quebec: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
