Where the market is wrong on Bodo/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen
Bodo/Glimt meet NEC Nijmegen in the UEFA Champions League play-offs at Aspmyra Stadion, Bodø.
Bodo/Glimt rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1776 to 1454. Recent form leans Bodo/Glimt, 88% against 43%. Attacking output favors Bodo/Glimt on expected goals, 3.0 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 54%, over 2.5 goals around 86%. Draw no bet leans Bodo/Glimt at 77%; double chance reads Bodo/Glimt or draw 82%, NEC Nijmegen or draw 41%.
Bodo/Glimt arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 16 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Fauske Sprint, W 3-0 v NEC Nijmegen, W 3-1 @ NEC Nijmegen, W 3-2 v Union St. Gilloise.
NEC Nijmegen are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Bodo/Glimt, L 1-3 v Bodo/Glimt, W 4-1 @ Willem II, W 2-1 v Olympiakos Piraeus.
Bodo/Glimt hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Bodo/Glimt 3-0 NEC Nijmegen.
The market prices BOD at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
