Where the market is wrong on Everton U21 v Southampton U21
Everton U21 meet Southampton U21 in the Premier League 2 Division One regular season at Goodison Park, Liverpool.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1523, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Southampton U21, 53% against 43%. Attacking output favors Everton U21 on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 79%, over 2.5 goals around 82%. Draw no bet leans Southampton U21 at 54%; double chance reads Everton U21 or draw 61%, Southampton U21 or draw 67%.
Everton U21 arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 6 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Southampton U21, D 1-1 v Liverpool U21, L 3-6 @ Stockport County, L 0-1 @ Shrewsbury.
Southampton U21 are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Everton U21, D 0-0 @ West Ham United U21, L 1-2 @ Truro City, W 4-0 v Blackburn Rovers U21.
The market prices EVE at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
