Where the market is wrong on GOES v UNA
GOES meet UNA in the Derde Divisie regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 43% against 45%. Attacking output favors UNA on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.5 per match.
GOES arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 8 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v UNA, W 3-2 @ Dongen, D 2-2 @ Blauw Geel, L 0-1 v Noordwijk.
UNA are patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 9 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ GOES, L 1-4 v Rijnvogels, D 1-1 @ Gemert, D 2-2 @ Staphorst.
UNA hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 1 with 2 drawn across the last 5 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: GOES 2-1 UNA.
The market prices GOE at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
