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Coppa Titano · Round of 16 · San-Marino

Tre Penne v Juvenes / Dogana

2-1Full time

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The Coppa Titano reaches the Round of 16 with a fixture that immediately carries extra weight, as Tre Penne and Juvenes / Dogana meet for the second time in the space of a week. That earlier encounter, a 2-1 Tre Penne victory in this same competition, forms the immediate backdrop to a tie that offers the home side a chance to build on their momentum and the away side a swift opportunity to correct a recent reversal.

Tre Penne arrive on the back of their narrow win over Juvenes / Dogana, a result that extended an impressive sequence in the Campionato. Nicola Berardi's side have won their last three league outings, scoring three goals against San Giovanni and twice against both Cosmos and Domagnano, demonstrating a consistent edge in front of goal. The solitary defeat in their recent run came at home to La Fiorita, though they responded with a draw in the return fixture against the same opponents. That blend of resilience and attacking output suggests a team in working order, and the prospect of reaching the quarter-finals will give their cup campaign added purpose.

Juvenes / Dogana, under A. Fabbri, will view this tie as a chance to shift the narrative of a patchy spell. Their form shows a mixed picture: defeats to Tre Penne, Libertas and Virtus have been punctuated by a commanding 4-0 victory over Faetano, while draws with Virtus and Libertas point to a side capable of holding their own but struggling to turn parity into wins. The most recent league result, a 1-1 home draw with Libertas, suggests a team that is competitive but searching for a decisive edge. Their cup exit at the hands of Tre Penne is recent enough to serve as a reference point, and they will be eager to show that the gap between the sides is narrower than that result implied.

The head-to-head record between these two clubs offers no historical pattern to lean on, with no previous meetings listed beyond the recent cup clash. That leaves the immediate form as the primary guide. Tre Penne hold the psychological advantage of having already beaten their opponents this season, but cup football often resets the context, and Juvenes / Dogana will have studied the mistakes that cost them in that first meeting. With a place in the last eight at stake, the margins are likely to be tight, and the pace of the game may well reflect the familiarity between the sides.

As kick-off approaches under the floodlights on a September evening, the tie presents a straightforward narrative: a home side looking to confirm their superiority and an away side seeking redemption. Both coaches will have had time to prepare their responses, and the result of the previous encounter adds a layer of intrigue. The Coppa Titano often rewards those who adapt quickly, and the opening exchanges will reveal which team has learned the most from their recent meeting.

Match analysisPre-match brief

Tre Penne v Juvenes / Dogana: the model read

Tre Penne meet Juvenes / Dogana in the Coppa Titano round of 16.

Tre Penne rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1707 to 1400. Recent form leans Tre Penne, 80% against 35%. Attacking output favors Tre Penne on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.3 per match.

Tre Penne arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Juvenes / Dogana, W 2-0 v Cosmos, W 3-2 @ San Giovanni, W 3-1 v Domagnano.

Juvenes / Dogana are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Tre Penne, L 1-2 @ Libertas, W 4-0 v Faetano, L 0-2 v Virtus.

Tre Penne hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Tre Penne 2-1 Juvenes / Dogana.

The market prices TRE at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Tre Penne

LWWWW13-6-1

Scored 2.10 · Conceded 0.70 · Clean sheets 35% · BTTS 60%

  • WHJuvenes / Dogana2-1
  • WHCosmos2-0
  • WASan Giovanni3-2
  • WHDomagnano3-1
  • LHLa Fiorita0-1

Juvenes / Dogana

DLWLL4-6-10

Scored 1.25 · Conceded 1.40 · Clean sheets 30% · BTTS 55%

  • LATre Penne1-2
  • LALibertas1-2
  • WHFaetano4-0
  • LHVirtus0-2
  • DAVirtus0-0

Head-to-head

10 meetings

Tre PennerecordJuvenes / Dogana
5
3
2 draws

Goals

20-15

for each

Avg goals

3.5

per game

BTTS

80%

both scored

Over 2.5

70%

3+ goals

Tre Penne

Recent
WWLDDW
Wins 5Goals 20-15

Biggest win 3-0

Juvenes / Dogana

Recent
LLWDDL
Wins 3Goals 15-20

Biggest win 4-2

  • Tre Penne2-1Juvenes / Dogana
  • Tre Penne3-1Juvenes / Dogana
  • Juvenes / Dogana1-0Tre Penne
  • Tre Penne1-1Juvenes / Dogana
  • Juvenes / Dogana1-1Tre Penne
  • Tre Penne4-2Juvenes / Dogana
  • Juvenes / Dogana1-2Tre Penne
  • Juvenes / Dogana4-2Tre Penne
  • Tre Penne3-0Juvenes / Dogana
  • Tre Penne2-3Juvenes / Dogana

Managers

Nicola Berardi

Head coach

In charge since 2025

A. Fabbri

Italy · 59

In charge since 2024 · 2 teams managed

  • Murata2019–2022

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