Where the market is wrong on Smouha SC v Asyut Petrol
Smouha SC meet Asyut Petrol in the Premier League regular season - 2 at Borg El Arab Stadium, Alexandria.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Asyut Petrol, 57% against 38%. Attacking output favors Asyut Petrol on expected goals, 1.2 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 24%, over 2.5 goals around 19%. Draw no bet leans Asyut Petrol at 60%; double chance reads Smouha SC or draw 61%, Asyut Petrol or draw 74%.
Smouha SC arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 1 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Asyut Petrol, L 0-1 @ AL Masry, L 1-2 @ Pyramids FC, L 0-1 v Zamalek SC.
Asyut Petrol are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 4 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Smouha SC, D 1-1 v Petrojet, W 1-0 v Baladiyyat Al Mehalla, D 1-1 @ El Mansura.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Smouha SC 0-0 Asyut Petrol.
The market prices SMO at 59% implied. Our number sits apart on Asyut Petrol: a 25.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
