Where the market is wrong on Giugliano v Scafatese
Giugliano meet Scafatese in the Serie C - Girone C girone c - 1 at Stadio Alberto De Cristofaro, Giugliano.
Scafatese rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1742 to 1454. Recent form leans Scafatese, 83% against 45%. Attacking output favors Scafatese on expected goals, 2.5 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 49%, over 2.5 goals around 62%. Draw no bet leans Scafatese at 67%; double chance reads Giugliano or draw 51%, Scafatese or draw 77%.
Giugliano arrive patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 v Scafatese, D 0-0 v Sorrento, L 0-3 @ Catanzaro, D 1-1 @ Casertana.
Scafatese are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 16 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 3-3 @ Giugliano, W 2-1 @ Salernitana, W 4-1 @ Pineto, L 1-3 @ Avellino.
The market prices GIU at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on Scafatese: a 21.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 85 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
