Where the market is wrong on Renate v Novara
Renate meet Novara in the Serie C - Girone A girone a - 3 at Mino Favini, Meda.
The baseline ratings are close, 1523 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 57%. Attacking output favors Renate on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.3 per match.
Renate arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Novara, L 1-4 @ Cittadella, L 0-1 v Cittadella, L 1-3 @ Alcione.
Novara are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Renate, D 0-0 v Livorno, D 2-2 v Folgore Caratese, L 0-1 @ Juventus U23.
The market prices REN at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Novara: a 7.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 70 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
