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FA WSL · Regular Season - 4 · England

Chelsea W v Arsenal W

1-0Full time· Wheatsheaf Park, Staines· Referee: Heaslip Emily

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Match analysisPre-match brief

Where the market is wrong on Chelsea W v Arsenal W

Chelsea W meet Arsenal W in the FA WSL regular season - 4 at Wheatsheaf Park, Staines.

The baseline ratings are close, 1765 to 1673, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Chelsea W, 85% against 73%. Attacking output favors Chelsea W on expected goals, 2.1 to 2.1 per match.

Chelsea W arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Arsenal W, W 1-0 v Austria Wien W, W 2-0 v Birmingham City W, W 5-0 @ Manchester United W.

Arsenal W are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 3 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Chelsea W, W 1-0 v Køge W, D 1-1 v Manchester United W, D 0-0 v Crystal Palace W.

Chelsea W hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chelsea W 1-0 Arsenal W.

The market prices CHE at 38% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.

Written from the MeisterIQ model output

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Chelsea W

DWWWW16-2-2

Scored 2.15 · Conceded 0.90 · Clean sheets 45% · BTTS 55%

  • WHArsenal W1-0
  • WHAustria Wien W1-0
  • WHBirmingham City W2-0
  • WAManchester United W5-0
  • DHAston Villa W1-1

Arsenal W

WDDWL13-3-4

Scored 2.10 · Conceded 0.75 · Clean sheets 45% · BTTS 40%

  • LAChelsea W0-1
  • WHKøge W1-0
  • DHManchester United W1-1
  • DHCrystal Palace W0-0
  • WABrighton W1-0

Head-to-head

10 meetings

Chelsea WrecordArsenal W
5
4
1 draw

Goals

11-13

for each

Avg goals

2.4

per game

BTTS

50%

both scored

Over 2.5

40%

3+ goals

Chelsea W

Recent
WWLLDW
Wins 5Goals 11-13

Biggest win 3-1

Arsenal W

Recent
LLWWDL
Wins 4Goals 13-11

Biggest win 4-1

  • Chelsea W1-0Arsenal W
  • Chelsea W1-0Arsenal W
  • Arsenal W3-1Chelsea W
  • Chelsea W0-2Arsenal W
  • Arsenal W1-1Chelsea W
  • Chelsea W1-0Arsenal W
  • Arsenal W1-2Chelsea W
  • Arsenal W1-0Chelsea W
  • Chelsea W3-1Arsenal W
  • Arsenal W4-1Chelsea W

Managers

Sonia Bompastor

Head coach

In charge since 2025

Renee Slegers

Head coach

In charge since 2025

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Real data only: recent results, head-to-head and market odds. No model output is shown for teams without Lemeister priors.