Where the market is wrong on Chelsea W v Aston Villa W
Chelsea W meet Aston Villa W in the FA WSL regular season - 1 at Stamford Bridge, London.
Chelsea W rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1400. Recent form leans Chelsea W, 75% against 30%. Attacking output favors Chelsea W on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.4 per match.
Chelsea W arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 4 unbeaten), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Aston Villa W, W 1-0 @ Real Sociedad W, W 5-2 v Real Sociedad W, W 1-0 v Manchester United W.
Aston Villa W are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts), 5 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Chelsea W, L 1-2 @ London City Lionesses W, L 0-3 v Arsenal W, L 0-2 v West Ham W.
Chelsea W hold the recent head-to-head, 9 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Chelsea W 1-1 Aston Villa W.
The market prices CHE at 71% implied. Our number sits apart on Aston Villa W: a 8.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 57 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
