Where the market is wrong on ES Zarzis v Olympique Béja
ES Zarzis meet Olympique Béja in the Ligue 1 regular season - 1 at Abdessalem Kazouz Stadium, Zarzis.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1432, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans ES Zarzis, 53% against 39%. Attacking output favors ES Zarzis on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 14%, over 2.5 goals around 10%. Draw no bet leans ES Zarzis at 60%; double chance reads ES Zarzis or draw 75%, Olympique Béja or draw 62%.
ES Zarzis arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts), 6 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Olympique Béja, L 0-1 v ES Tunis, W 1-0 @ CS Sfaxien, W 2-0 v CA Bizertin.
Olympique Béja are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 4 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ ES Zarzis, D 1-1 @ Club Africain, W 2-1 v Jeunesse Sportive Omrane, L 0-2 @ CS Sfaxien.
The market prices ES at 57% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 9.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
