Where the market is wrong on Santamarina v Fundacion Amigos
Santamarina meet Fundacion Amigos in the Torneo Federal A losers stage - 4 at Estadio Municipal Gral. San Martin, Tandil.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fundacion Amigos, 55% against 30%. Attacking output favors Fundacion Amigos on expected goals, 1.0 to 0.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 12%, over 2.5 goals around 11%. Draw no bet leans Fundacion Amigos at 65%; double chance reads Santamarina or draw 59%, Fundacion Amigos or draw 78%.
Santamarina arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts), 3 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Guillermo Brown, W 2-0 v Fundacion Amigos, L 1-5 @ Germinal de Rawson, L 0-1 v San Martín Mendoza.
Fundacion Amigos are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 3 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Sol de Mayo, L 0-2 @ Santamarina, D 0-0 v Costa Brava, L 0-1 @ Juventud Unida Univ..
Santamarina hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Santamarina 2-0 Fundacion Amigos.
The market prices SAN at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on Fundacion Amigos: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 82 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
