Where the market is wrong on Modena v Empoli
Modena meet Empoli in the Serie B regular season - 5 at Alberto Braglia, Modena.
The baseline ratings are close, 1471 to 1456, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 44% against 45%. Attacking output favors Modena on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Modena arrive in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Empoli, D 1-1 @ Sudtirol, L 0-1 v Avellino, W 3-0 @ Cremonese.
Empoli are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Modena, L 0-1 v Arezzo, W 1-0 @ Carrarese, L 1-3 @ Mantova.
The market prices MOD at 58% implied. Our number sits apart on Empoli: a 14.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
