Where the market is wrong on Young Africans v Coastal Union
Young Africans meet Coastal Union in the Ligi kuu Bara regular season - 2 at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium, Dar es Salaam.
Young Africans rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1753 to 1477. Recent form leans Young Africans, 85% against 45%. Attacking output favors Young Africans on expected goals, 2.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans Young Africans at 79%; double chance reads Young Africans or draw 84%, Coastal Union or draw 40%.
Young Africans arrive surging: 5W-0D-0L from their last five (15/15 pts, 5 straight wins), 16 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 4-1 v Coastal Union, W 3-1 @ Namungo, W 3-0 @ JKT Tanzania, W 3-0 v Tabora United.
Coastal Union are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 4 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ Young Africans, L 0-1 v Mashujaa, W 2-1 v Pamba Jiji, L 0-2 v Azam.
The market prices YOU at 85% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 13.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 58 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
